AUSTRALIAN VOTERS BECOMING MORE VOLATILE: STUDY

Trends in Australian Political Opinion: Results from the Australian Election Study, 1987-2004, by Professor Ian McAllister from ANU and Dr Juliet Clarke from Deakin University, reveals long-term changes in voter behaviour and interests. The release coincides with the 20th Anniversary of the Australian Research Council funded study. Professor Ian McAllister, principal investigator for the AES, said the monograph enabled analysts to stand back from week-to-week opinion polls and look at what is really happening among Australian voters.

‘We can see that the pool of potential swinging voters has grown over time as loyalty to any particular party diminishes’ Professor McAllister said. ‘Contrary to popular thought, however, voters do not appear to becoming disengaged. In fact, there has been a gradual growth in interest in politics.’

‘The economy counts as an important driver and voters seem to feel both they and the country are better off. On the flipside, though, those voters who supported economic reform in the 1990’s indicate a growing desire to see government spending on infrastructure and social services rather than tax cuts.’

‘Interestingly, given the political noise on workplace relations at the moment, voters don’t see the unions as a threat or the bogeyman of old. There is a very definite growth in the number of people who believe that big business has too much power, but a commensurate decline in those that believe that unions have too much power.’

‘There has also been significant change in attitudes toward immigration, with a significant decline since 1996 in the number people who believe immigration levels should be reduced.’

The AES, which polls around 2000 voters in the eight weeks following an election, covers: attitudes toward election campaigns; voting and partisanship; election issues; the economy; politics and political parties; the Left-Right dimension; political leaders; democracy and institutions; trade unions; business and wealth; social issues and defence and foreign affairs.

AES are available online at http://assda.anu.edu.au/aestrends.pdf

ANU Professor John Wanna presents his election blog, as he examines the main contours of the campaign week by week and the motivations and the politics behind them.

http://news.sbs.com.au/worldnewsaustralia/election_blog_spin_and_reality_133309